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Crowdfunding Campaign: Support the Energy Transition

New Study on Shortcomings of Renewable Energy Auctions

Dear Colleagues and Friends,

Despite the urgency of establishing effective climate protection and a sustainable economy, the expansion of renewable energy is lagging far behind its potential in many regions around the world. In Germany and other countries, it is becoming apparent that the recent shifts from feed-in tariffs to auctions are accompanied by a number of negative developments that include a decline in investments, the exclusion of community energy projects and the absence of cost reductions. For several years now, the Energy Watch Group has been observing and drawing attention to this dangerous development that has been widely neglected by politics and the public.
With a new large-scale study, we want to shed scientific light on the effects of the transition to auctioning

After months of intensive discussions with various stakeholders, we have assembled a team of leading scientists who are now compiling an extensive global summary on the shortcomings of renewable energy auctions. With this new scientific evidence, we want to give policymakers the necessary impetus for a change of course – towards an accelerated expansion of renewable energy worldwide. In order to finance this project, we have started a crowdfunding campaign and need your support!

New investments in renewables decrease, community energy is being pushed out of the market. Our president Hans-Josef Fell about the necessity of a political turnaround.

Please support this project with a few clicks!

Time is pressing, and the political course will be set this fall: With the European Green Deal in the pipeline, the German Bundestag scheduled to amend the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) and many legislative amendments pending outside the EU, the next decade of energy policy will be decided upon this year. Our planned study is already partially funded but in order to raise funds for the remaining costs of 24,000€, we have launched our first crowdfunding campaign. Our goal is to incorporate the results of the study into the public debate and policy-making processes already from September onwards, and we need your help to put this plan into action!

… and spread the word!

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Key points of a legislative initiative for reliable and adequate renewable energy supply

Stimulating investments in sector coupling and innovation: Energy Watch Group proposes new law for reliable and adequate renewable energy systems

Berlin (May 14, 2020) – On the occasion of this year’s 20th anniversary of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), the Berlin-based Think-and-Do Tank Energy Watch Group (EWG) presents a legislative proposal to stimulate the system integration of renewable energy. The underlying purpose of the policy proposal is to allow renewable energy sources to finally assume responsibility for the system security of the power supply – i.e. to cover the required energy demand at every hour of the year. With a so-called combined power plant tariff, the instrument intends to stimulate investments for full demand coverage by 100% renewable energy. Based on own techno-economic cost estimates and a legal examination of EU regulations, the EWG proposes a fixed-feed-in-tariff of 8 cents/kWh, supported by a sliding market premium.

While renewables keep setting records in terms of their shares of national electricity mixes – Germany has recently hit the 50% mark –, a full transformation to an entirely renewable-based energy system is not yet widely regarded to be a tangible reality. One of the main reasons is the prevailing mistrust of the ability of renewables to provide year-round supply. Many scientific studies have already shown that a complete conversion to renewables is not only critical for reasons of climate protection, but also that it is technologically feasible (in combination with storage technologies and digital control technology) at any hour of the year and at cost-effective prices. What is still missing, however, is a legal basis to enable the market penetration of reliable and adequate 100% renewable energy systems.

“The newly proposed Sector Coupling and Innovation Act for Renewable Energy is intended to become a major impetus to overcome the current challenges of the coronavirus recession and the climate crisis. More than ever, it is necessary to find solutions that both stimulate the economy and protect our climate,” said Hans-Josef Fell, who, as President of the EWG and author of the draft law EEG 2000, was responsible for drafting the new legislative initiative.

Stefan Gsänger, Secretary General of the World Wind Energy Association, emphasized: “Renewable energy ultimately can, must and will assume responsibility for system security. Today, wind and solar power have become the cheapest forms of energy. As a next step, the investments in the optimised integration of all renewable energy sources must be massively increased. The EWG’s new policy proposal shows how this can be achieved effectively and deserves wide attention.”

The law would create a market for the very large number of start-ups and established companies that are in the starting blocks with innovative system developments for storage, digital controls, green power generation and sector coupling, but do not yet have a viable market environment to generate large-scale privately financed investments.

“The advantages of low, decentralised and transparent energy production costs can now be shared with those of climate protection and security of supply, especially since integration comes also from the regional level in support of the transmission network. Further innovations and growth markets can certainly develop if technologies such as batteries, hydrogen, heat pumps and heat storage in combination with solar and wind energy are dynamically developed towards decentral system responsibility.”, states Thure Traber, Chief Research Officer at the EWG and author of the legislative proposal.

A legal examination of the proposal has shown the compatibility with EU regulations. A distinction is made between a fixed feed-in tariff per kWh fed into the grid for small plants and a floating market premium for larger plants that participate in electricity competition via direct marketing. Similar options for policy implementation are expected at international level. With political majorities in national parliaments, the proposal can help to realise effective climate protection and, after the end of the coronavirus pandemic, a rapid recovery of the economy together with the phasing-out of fossil and nuclear energy in favour of clean renewable energy sources.

The full policy paper is available here.

Media contact: Charlotte Hornung / +49 30 609898815 / hornung@energywatchgroup.org

About Energy Watch Group  

Energy Watch Group (EWG) is an independent, non-profit, non-partisan global network of scientists and parliamentarians. EWG conducts research and publishes independent studies and analyses on global energy developments. The mission of the organisation is to provide energy policy with objective information. For more information, please visit www.energywatchgroup.org.
Contact: office@energywatchgroup.org, +49 30 609898815

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Natural gas accelerates climate change through alarming methane emissions

Conversion from coal and oil to natural gas increases greenhouse effect of energy consumption by around 40%

Berlin (September 17th, 2019) – The International Energy Agency (IEA) is repeatedly playing down the climate impact of natural gas, thus laying the foundation for national governments to continue to heavily subsidise fossil fuels. Against this background, the Energy Watch Group presented the latest scientific findings on the future suitability of natural gas in a new study released on Monday. The key finding debunks the widespread picture of natural gas as a climate-friendly bridge technology: The switch from coal-fired power generation and oil-fired heating to natural gas increases the greenhouse effect of energy supply by around 40% due to alarming methane emissions. Thus, contrary to what is widely communicated to the public, natural gas does not contribute to climate protection, but instead causes an additional acceleration of climate change.

The study of the independent Berlin Think-and-Do-Tank calculates for the first time the climate impact of a fossil-fossil substitution by natural gas based on the latest research on methane and carbon dioxide emissions of the entire supply chain. The climate impact was evaluated with regard to the 20-year horizon relevant for potential climate tipping points. The study comes to the conclusion that possible CO2savings from natural gas are far outweighed by its high methane emissions. A switch from coal and crude oil in the electricity, heat and transport sectors to natural gas even significantly exceeds the highly negative climate impact of coal and crude oil.

„The IEA, which many governments regard as a reference for their energy policy decisions, deceives us with outdated figures and problematic assumptions about the actual climate impact of natural gas – with devastating consequences for our climate and the economy.”, explained Dr. Thure Traber, co-author and leading scientist of the EWG. „The economic risks of natural gas are significant: If the climate targets are to be achieved on national and international levels, then it is simply impossible for investments in natural gas to pay for themselves. What will remain are stranded investments in the billions.”

“The study confirms that the production of highly climate-damaging natural gas will further exacerbate climate change,” added Hans-Josef Fell. The former member of the German Parliament and President of the Energy Watch Group, who was involved in the study as co-author, calls for a rethink in the current political debate about the future of the energy sector. “Existing and new subsidies for natural gas are incompatible with the Paris climate protection targets. Instead, we urgently need more investments in renewable energies, because only these have an immediate and lasting positive effect on the climate.”

What exactly politics has to do in order to establish a sustainable energy system is clear to the authors of the study: an immediate abolition of all subsidies for fossil fuels and a comprehensive introduction of emission-free, renewable technologies; the existing natural gas infrastructure can alternatively be used for climate-friendly biogas and green gases such as hydrogen from green electricity. Since a worldwide transition of the energy system to 100% renewable energies would save 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions, this measure must be at the centre of all climate protection efforts. The study points out that fossil energies have no place in the future energy system and calls upon politicians to correct the false image of natural gas as a climate-friendly bridge technology.

The study is freely available here.

Press Contact: Charlotte Hornung / +49 30 609898815 / hornung(a)energywatchgroup.org

 

About the Energy Watch Group 

Energy Watch Group (EWG) is an independent, non-profit, non-partisan global network of scientists and parliamentarians. EWG conducts research and publishes independent studies and analyses on global energy developments. The mission of the organization is to provide energy policy with objective information.

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New Study: Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy

The new study by the Energy Watch Group and LUT University is the first of its kind to outline a 1.5°C scenario with a cost-effective, cross-sectoral, technology-rich global 100% renewable energy system that does not build on negative CO2 emission technologies. The scientific modelling study simulates a total global energy transition in the electricity, heat, transport and desalination sectors by 2050. It is based on four and a half years of research and analysis of data collection, as well as technical and financial modelling by 14 scientists. This proves that the transition to 100% renewable energy is economically competitive with the current fossil and nuclear-based system, and could reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the energy system to zero even before 2050.

“The report confirms that a transition to 100% renewables is possible across all sectors, and is no longer more expensive than the current energy system,” said Hans-Josef Fell, former Member of the German Parliament and President of the Energy Watch Group, in advance of the publication. “It shows that the whole world can make the transition to a zero emission energy system. That is why all political powers around the world can and should do much more to protect our climate than they currently envision.” Thanks to the developed model and the extensive existing database, EWG and LUT can now also develop national roadmaps for the transition to 100% renewables, tailored precisely for the individual countries’ respective context, Fell added.

“The study’s results show that all countries can and should accelerate the current Paris Climate Agreement targets,” said Dr Christian Breyer, Professor for Solar Economy at the Finnish LUT University. “A transition to 100% clean, renewable energies is highly realistic – even today, with the technologies currently available.”

Prof. Dr Claudia Kemfert, Head of the Department of Energy, Transport and the Environment at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), highlighted the economic viability of renewable energies: “The study is an impressive demonstration that a transition to renewable energy sources worldwide is not only feasible, but also makes economic sense.” David Wortmann, initiator of the Eco Innovation Alliance and founding member of Entrepreneurs For Future also called on policy-makers to put in place innovation-friendly frameworks and emphasised that “for us, an economically profitable energy transition has long since ceased to be a myth”. Franziska Wessel from Fridays For Future also called on policy-makers to take immediate action: “This study shows what is possible if our politicians are willing to act. We – Fridays For Future – call for a completion of the transition to 100% renewables by 2035.”

The study concludes with political recommendations for a rapid integration of renewable energy and zero greenhouse gas emission technologies. Among the most important measures suggested by the report are promoting sector coupling, private investments (which should ideally be incentivised with fixed feed-in tariffs), tax breaks and legal privileges with simultaneous discontinuation of subsidies for coal and fossil fuels. According to the report, the transition to a global energy system based on 100% renewables can be achieved before 2050 if a strong policy framework is implemented.

Some key findings of the study:

  • The transition to 100% renewable energy requires comprehensive electrification in all energy sectors. The total electricity generation will be four to five times higher than electricity generation in 2015. Accordingly, electricity consumption in 2050 will account for more than 90% of the primary energy consumption. At the same time, consumption of fossil and nuclear energy resources in all sectors will cease completely.
  • The global primary energy generation in the 100% renewable energy system will consist of the following mix of energy sources: solar energy (69%), wind power (18%), hydropower (3%), bioenergy (6%) and geothermal energy (2%).
  • By 2050, wind and solar power will account for 96% of the total power supply of renewable energy sources. Renewable energies are produced virtually exclusively from decentralised local and regional generation.
  • 100% renewables are more cost-effective: The energy costs for a fully sustainable energy system will decrease from € 54/MWh in 2015 to € 53/MWh in 2050.
  • The transition in all sectors will reduce the annual greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector continuously from roughly 30 GtCO2-eq. in 2015 to zero by 2050.
  • A 100%-renewable electricity system will employ 35 million people worldwide. The roughly 9 million jobs in the worldwide coal mining sector from 2015 will be phased out completely by 2050. They will be overcompensated by the over 15 million new jobs in the renewable energy sector.

 

About the Study
The simulation “Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy”, co-funded by the German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and the Stiftung Mercator, comprises a state-of-the-art modeling, developed by LUT University and computes a cost-optimal mix of technologies based on locally available renewable energy sources. It determines the most cost-effective energy transition pathway for global energy supply on an hourly resolution for an entire reference year and structured in 145 regions. The global energy transition scenario is carried out in 5-year time periods from 2015 until 2050. The results are aggregated into nine major regions of the world: Europe, Eurasia, MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa, SAARC, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, North America and South America.

About Energy Watch Group
Energy Watch Group (EWG) is an independent, non-profit, non-partisan global network of scientists and parliamentarians. EWG conducts research and publishes independent studies and analyses on global energy developments. The mission of the organization is to provide energy policy with objective information.

About LUT University
LUT University has pioneered as a science university combining technology and business since 1969. It has been recognised in international rankings as one of the world’s top universities. Clean energy and water, a circular economy and sustainable business are pivotal questions for humankind. LUT University applies its expertise in technology and business to seek solutions to these questions. LUT University strongly promotes entrepreneurship stemming from its scientific research. An example of this is the business accelerator Green Campus Open, which supports new spin-off companies that are based on LUT’s research. LUT’s international science community consists of 6500 students and experts. www.lut.fi/web/en/

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New Study: 100% Renewable Energy across Europe is More Cost Effective than the Current Energy System and Leads to Zero Emissions Before 2050

New scientific study models full energy transition across power, heat, and transport sectors

Katowice, Poland (December 11, 2018) – As climate discussions are underway among global leaders at COP24, the annual United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) conference, a new report released Tuesday showcases the feasibility of a European energy transition to 100% renewable sources. The new scientific study shows that the transition to 100% renewable energy will be economically competitive with today’s conventional fossil fuel and nuclear energy system, and lead greenhouse gas emissions to zero before 2050. The study’s financial case for an energy transition becomes even stronger when taking into account significant projected job growth and the indirect economic benefits for health, security, and the environment, that were not factored into the study.

Undertaken by LUT University and Energy Watch Group, the first-of-its-kind scientific modeling study has simulated a full energy transition in Europe across the power, heat, transport, and desalination sectors by 2050. The study’s publication came after approximately four and a half years of data collection, and technical and financial modeling under the research and analysis of 14 scientists.

“This report confirms that a transition to 100% renewable energy across all sectors is possible and not more expensive than today’s energy system,” said Hans-Josef Fell, former German parliamentarian and president of Energy Watch Group, during its COP24 press conference, “It demonstrates that Europe can switch to a zero-emission energy system. Therefore, European leaders can and should do much more for climate protection than what is currently on the table.”

 Some of the study’s key findings:

  • The transition will require mass electrification across all energy sectors. Total power generation will exceed four to five times that of 2015, with electricity constituting for more than 85% of primary energy demand in 2050. Simultaneously, fossil fuels and nuclear are phased out completely across all sectors.
  • Electricity generation in the 100% renewable energy system will consist of the following mix of power sources: solar PV (62%), wind (32%), hydropower (4%), bioenergy (2%) and geothermal energy (<1%).
  • Wind and solar make up 94% of total electricity supply by 2050, and approximately 85% of the renewable energy supply will come from decentralized local and regional generation.
  • 100% renewable energy is not more expensive: The levelised cost of energy for a fully sustainable energy system in Europe remains stable, ranging from 50-60 €/MWh through the transition.
  • Europe’s annual greenhouse gas emissions decline steadily through the transition, from approximately 4200 MtCO2 in 2015 to zero by 2050 across all sectors.
  • A 100% renewable power system will employ 3 to 3.5 million people. The approximate 800,000 jobs in the European coal industry of 2015 will be zeroed out by 2050, and will be overcompensated by more than 1.5-million new jobs in the renewable energy sector.

“The results of the study showcase that the current goals set forth under the Paris Agreement can and should be accelerated,” said Dr. Christian Breyer, professor for solar economy at Finland’s LUT University, “The transition to 100% clean, renewable energy is very realistic, right now, with the technology we have available today.”

The study concludes with policy recommendations to promote a swift uptake of renewable energy and zero-emission technology adoption. Primary measures promoted in the report include support of sector coupling, private investments, tax benefits, legal privileges, with a simultaneous phase out of coal and fossil fuel subsides. By implementing strong political frameworks, the report shows that a transition to 100% renewable energy can be realised even earlier than 2050.

Click here for key findings

The full study is available here.

A presentation summarising the study results is available here.

A detailed presentation on the study results is available here.

Supplementary data of the study is available here.

Press release also available in German, French, Spanish and Russian.

Media Contact: Charlotte Hornung / +49 (30) 609 898 810 / hornung(at)energywatchgroup.org

 

About the Study

Simulation of the energy transition in Europe is part of the study “Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy”, co-funded by the German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and the Stiftung Mercator. State-of-the-art modeling, developed by LUT University, computes a cost-optimal mix of technologies based on locally available renewable energy sources for the world structured in 145 regions and determines a most cost-effective energy transition pathway for energy supply on an hourly resolution for an entire reference year. The global energy transition scenario is carried out in 5-year time periods from 2015 until 2050. The results are aggregated into nine major regions of the world: Europe, Eurasia, MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa, SAARC, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, North America and South America.

About Energy Watch Group

Energy Watch Group (EWG) is an independent, non-profit, non-partisan global network of scientists and parliamentarians. EWG conducts research and publishes independent studies and analyses on global energy developments. The mission of the organization is to provide energy policy with objective information.

About LUT University

LUT University has pioneered as a science university combining technology and business since 1969. It has been recognised in international rankings as one of the world’s top universities.Clean energy and water, a circular economy and sustainable business are pivotal questions for humankind. LUT University applies its expertise in technology and business to seek solutions to these questions. LUT University strongly promotes entrepreneurship stemming from its scientific research. An example of this is the business accelerator Green Campus Open, which supports new spin-off companies that are based on LUT’s research. LUT’s international science community consists of 6500 students and experts. www.lut.fi/web/en/

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100% Renewable Electricity Worldwide is Feasible and More Cost-Effective than the Existing System

A global transition to 100% renewable electricity is not a long-term vision, but already a tangible reality, a new groundbreaking study by the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and the Energy Watch Group (EWG) shows. The study was presented on November 8, 2017 during the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS) on the sidelines of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP23 in Bonn.

The results of the study are revealing: A global electricity system fully based on renewable energy is feasible at every hour throughout the year and is more cost effective than the existing system, which is largely based on fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050[1]. Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is €52/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to €70/MWh in 2015.

“A full decarbonization of the electricity system by 2050 is possible for lower system cost than today based on available technology. Energy transition is no longer a question of technical feasibility or economic viability, but of political will”, Christian Breyer, lead author of the study, LUT Professor of Solar Economy and Chairman of the EWG Scientific Board said.

A transition to 100% renewables would bring greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector down to zero and drastically reduce total losses in power generation. It would create 36 million jobs by 2050, 17 million more than today.

”There is no reason to invest one more Dollar in fossil or nuclear power production”, EWG President Hans-Josef Fell said. “Renewable energy provides cost-effective power supply. All plans for a further expansion of coal, nuclear, gas and oil have to be ceased. More investments need to be channeled in renewable energies and the necessary infrastructure for storage and grids. Everything else will lead to unnecessary costs and increasing global warming.”

The key findings of the study:

  • Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050. The world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion. The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWh by 2050.
  • Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is €52/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to €70/MWh in 2015.
  • Due to rapidly falling costs, solar PV and battery storage increasingly drive most of the electricity system, with solar PV reaching some 69%, wind energy 18%, hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity mix in 2050 globally.
  • Wind energy increases to 32% by 2030. Beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more competitive. The solar PV supply share increases from 37% in 2030 to about 69% in 2050.
  • Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV. The storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050, 95% of which is covered by batteries alone. Battery storage provides mainly diurnal storage, and renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage.
  • Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO2eqin 2015 to zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system
  • The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by 2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs in the 2015 electricity system.
  • The total losses in a 100% renewable electricity system are around 26% of the total electricity demand, compared to the current system in which about 58% of the primary energy input is lost.

The study “Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector” will have major implications for policy makers and politicians around the world, as it refutes a frequently used argument by critics that renewables cannot provide full energy supply on an hourly basis.

The first of its art modeling, developed by LUT, computes the cost-optimal mix of technologies based on locally available renewable energy sources for the world structured in 145 regions and calculates the most cost-effective energy transition pathway for electricity supply on an hourly resolution for an entire reference year. The global energy transition scenario is carried out in 5-year time periods from 2015 until 2050. The results are aggregated into nine major regions of the world: Europe, Eurasia, MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa, SAARC, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, North America and South America.

The study “Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector” is co-funded by the German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and the Stiftung Mercator.

Click here for key findings and the executive summary

The full study is available here

A presentation summarising the global results and further links to regions and countries is available here

Press contact: Doreen Rietentiet, Energy Watch Group, Tel: +49 30 609 898 810, presse©energywatchgroup.org

About the Energy Watch Group

The Energy Watch Group (EWG) is an independent, non-profit global network of scientists and parliamentarians. The EWG commissions research and independent studies and analyses on global energy developments.

[1] The simulations of the global power sector in this study were made until 2050. Yet, with favorable political frameworks, the transition to 100% renewable energy can be realized earlier than 2050.

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100% обеспечение электричеством из ВИЭ во всем мире возможно и экономически более выгодно

8 ноября 2017 г., Бонн – Глобальный переход на 100% обеспечение электричеством из возобновляемых источников энергии – это не долгосрочное видение, а уже ощутимая реальность, показывает новое новаторское исследование Лаппеенрантского технологического университета (Lappeenranta Univeristy of Technology, LUT) и Energy Watch Group (EWG). Исследование было представлено 8 ноября 2017 года на Всемирной выставке возобновляемых источников энергии (GRESS) в рамках Конференции Организации Объединенных Наций по изменению климата COP23 (COP23) в Бонне.

Результаты исследования показывают: полное и бесперебойное обеспечение глобальной электроэнергетической системы возобновляемыми источниками энергии осуществимо и экономически более выгодно, чем на основе ископаемого топлива и ядерной энергии.

Существующий потенциал и технологии в области возобновляемых источников энергии, включая накопление энергии, могут обеспечить достаточную и надежную мощность для покрытия всего мирового спроса на электроэнергию к 2050[1] году. На глобальном уровне нормированная стоимость энергии (levelised cost of electricity, LCOE) для 100% обеспечения электричеством от возобновляемых источников энергии в 2050 году составит 52 Евро/МВт-ч (включая ограничения, хранение энергии и издержки провайдера) по сравнению с 70 Евро/МВт-ч в 2015 году.

«Полная декарбонизация системы электроснабжения возможна к 2050 году на основе имеющихся технологий и будет стоить меньше, чем нынешняя система. Энергетический поворот уже давно не вопрос технической осуществимости или экономической целесообразности, а политической воли.» – сказал Кристиан Брейер, ведущий автор исследования, профессор в области солнечной экономики LUT и председатель научного совета EWG.

Переход на 100% обеспечение от возобновляемых источников энергии сократит выбросы парниковых газов в секторе электроэнергетики до нуля и приведет к резкому сокращению общих потерь в производстве электроэнергии. Энергетический переход создаст к 2050 году 36 миллионов рабочих мест, на 17 миллионов больше, чем сейчас.

«Это – бессмысленно вкладывать даже один доллар в производство ископаемых или атомных энергоресурсов», – сказал президент EWG Ханс-Йозеф Фелл. «Возобновляемая энергия обеспечивает экономное энергоснабжение. Все планы по дальнейшему расширению угольной, ядерной, газовой и нефтяной промышленности должны быть прекращены. Необходимо направлять больше инвестиций в развитие возобновляемых источников энергии и необходимой инфраструктуры для их накопления и передачи. Все остальное приведет к ненужным затратам и ускорению глобального потепления».

Основные результаты исследования

  • Существующий потенциал и технологии в области возобновляемых источников энергии, включая накопление энергии, могут обеспечить достаточную и надежную мощность для покрытия всего мирового спроса на электроэнергию к 2050 году. Ожидается, что население планеты вырастет с 7,3 до 9,7 млрд. человек. Глобальный спрос на электроэнергию увеличится с 24 310 ТВт-ч в 2015 году до примерно 48 800 ТВт-ч к 2050 году.
  • На глобальном уровне нормированная стоимости энергии (levelised cost of electricity, LCOE) для 100%-ного обеспечения электричеством от возобновляемых источников энергии в 2050 году составит 52 Евро/МВт-ч (включая ограничения, хранение энергии и издержки провайдера) по сравнению с 70 Евро/МВт-ч в 2015 году.
  • Из-за стремительно падающих затрат солнечная энергия и накопительные батареи составят значительную часть системы электроснабжения, при этом доля солнечной энергии достигнет 69%, ветряной энергии 18%, гидроэнергии 8% и биоэнергии 2% от общего количества глобальной электроэнергии в 2050 году.
  • Ветряная энергия возрастет до 32% к 2030 году. После 2030 года солнечные фотоэлектрические системы станут более конкурентоспособными. Доля солнечной энергии увеличится от 37% в 2030 году до 69% в 2050 году.
  • Накопительные батареи для бесперебойного питания являются ключевой технологией поддержки солнечных фотоэлектрических систем. Объем накопления энергии составит 31% от общего спроса в 2050 году, 95% из которых составят батареи. Накопительные системы будут обеспечивать в основном суточное хранение, а возобновляемая энергия на основе газа – сезонное.
  • Глобальные выбросы парниковых газов значительно сократятся с примерно 11 гт.CO2-эквивалента в 2015 году до нулевых выбросов к 2050 году или ранее, поскольку нормированная стоимость энергии (LCOE) в энергосистеме снижается.
  • Глобальный энергетический переход на 100% обеспечение электричеством от возобновляемых источников энергии создаст к 2050 году 36 млн рабочих мест по сравнению с 19 млн рабочих мест в электроэнергетической системе 2015 года.
  • Общие потери в электроэнергетической системе, полностью обеспечиваемой возобновляемыми источниками энергии, составят около 26% от общего спроса на электроэнергию по сравнению с существующей системой, в которой теряется около 58% объема первичной энергии.

Исследование «Глобальная энергетическая система, основанная на 100% обеспечении электричеством из возобновляемых источников энергии – энергетический сектор» будет иметь серьезные последствия для политических деятелей и политиков всего мира, поскольку она опровергает часто используемый аргумент критиков о том, что возобновляемые источники энергии не могут обеспечить полное и бесперебойное энергоснабжение на почасовой основе.

Уникальная система моделирования, разработанная LUT, вычисляет экономически оптимальное сочетание технологий и локально доступных возобновляемых источников энергии для 145 регионов мира, и рассчитывает наиболее экономически эффективный путь перехода на бесперебойное электроснабжение за отчетный год. Моделирование энергетического перехода осуществляется на периоды пяти лет с 2015 по 2050 год. Результаты объединены в девять основных регионов мира: Европа, Евразия, Ближний Восток и Северная Африка, Тропическая Африка, Южно-Азиатская ассоциация регионального сотрудничества (СААРК), Северо-Восточная Азия, Юго-Восточная Азия, Северная Америка и Южная Америка.

Исследование «Глобальная энергетическая система, основанная на 100% обеспечении электричеством от возобновляемой энергии – энергетический сектор», финансируется Германским федеральным фондом окружающей среды (DBU) и фондом Mercator.

Основные результаты исследования (на русском языке) доступны по данной ссылке.

Исследование  (на английском языке) доступно по данной ссылке.

Презентация результатов на глобальном уровне и ссылки на региональные исследования доступны по данной ссылке.

Контакт для прессы: Комила Набиева, Energy Watch Group, Tel: +49 30 609 898 810, presse©energywatchgroup.org 

Об организации Energy Watch Group

Energy Watch Group (EWG) – независимая, некоммерческая международная сеть ученых и парламентариев, которая организовывает независимые научные исследования и анализ в области развития глобального энергетического сектора.

[1] Моделирование мирового энергетического сектора в этом исследовании было проведено до 2050 года. Однако при благоприятных политических условиях переход на 100% обеспечение электричеством от возобновляемых источников энергии может быть реализован ранее.

New Study: 100% Renewable Electricity Worldwide is Feasible and More Cost-Effective than the Existing System

November 8, 2017, Bonn – A global transition to 100% renewable electricity is not a long-term vision, but already a tangible reality, a new groundbreaking study by the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and the Energy Watch Group (EWG) shows. The study was presented on November 8, 2017 during the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS) on the sidelines of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP23 in Bonn.

The results of the study are revealing: A global electricity system fully based on renewable energy is feasible at every hour throughout the year and is more cost effective than the existing system, which is largely based on fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050[1]. Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is €52/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to €70/MWh in 2015.

“A full decarbonization of the electricity system by 2050 is possible for lower system cost than today based on available technology. Energy transition is no longer a question of technical feasibility or economic viability, but of political will”, Christian Breyer, lead author of the study, LUT Professor of Solar Economy and Chairman of the EWG Scientific Board said.

A transition to 100% renewables would bring greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector down to zero and drastically reduce total losses in power generation. It would create 36 million jobs by 2050, 17 million more than today.

”There is no reason to invest one more Dollar in fossil or nuclear power production”, EWG President Hans-Josef Fell said. “Renewable energy provides cost-effective power supply. All plans for a further expansion of coal, nuclear, gas and oil have to be ceased. More investments need to be channeled in renewable energies and the necessary infrastructure for storage and grids. Everything else will lead to unnecessary costs and increasing global warming.”

The key findings of the study:

  • Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050. The world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion. The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWh by 2050.
  • Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is €52/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to €70/MWh in 2015.
  • Due to rapidly falling costs, solar PV and battery storage increasingly drive most of the electricity system, with solar PV reaching some 69%, wind energy 18%, hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity mix in 2050 globally.
  • Wind energy increases to 32% by 2030. Beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more competitive. The solar PV supply share increases from 37% in 2030 to about 69% in 2050.
  • Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV. The storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050, 95% of which is covered by batteries alone. Battery storage provides mainly diurnal storage, and renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage.
  • Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO2eqin 2015 to zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system
  • The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by 2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs in the 2015 electricity system.
  • The total losses in a 100% renewable electricity system are around 26% of the total electricity demand, compared to the current system in which about 58% of the primary energy input is lost.

The study “Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector” will have major implications for policy makers and politicians around the world, as it refutes a frequently used argument by critics that renewables cannot provide full energy supply on an hourly basis.

The first of its art modeling, developed by LUT, computes the cost-optimal mix of technologies based on locally available renewable energy sources for the world structured in 145 regions and calculates the most cost-effective energy transition pathway for electricity supply on an hourly resolution for an entire reference year. The global energy transition scenario is carried out in 5-year time periods from 2015 until 2050. The results are aggregated into nine major regions of the world: Europe, Eurasia, MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa, SAARC, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, North America and South America.

The study “Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector” is co-funded by the German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and the Stiftung Mercator.

Click here for key findings and the executive summary

The full study is available here

A presentation summarising the global results and further links to regions and countries is available here

Press contact: Charlotte Hornung, Energy Watch Group, Tel: +49 30 609 898 810, presse©energywatchgroup.org

About the Energy Watch Group

The Energy Watch Group (EWG) is an independent, non-profit global network of scientists and parliamentarians. The EWG commissions research and independent studies and analyses on global energy developments.

[1] The simulations of the global power sector in this study were made until 2050. Yet, with favorable political frameworks, the transition to 100% renewable energy can be realized earlier than 2050.