March 20, 2018, Berlin – During his state visit to India, France’s President Macron agreed with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week to sell six French EPR reactors for the largest nuclear power plant planned in Jaitapur. Regardless of the fact that India has not yet signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The plutonium from the reactors could be completely used for the construction of nuclear weapons without international control. In terms of energy, too, all EPR construction projects in recent years are highly problematic.

The European Pressurized Reactor (EPR), proclaimed in the 1990s as a new impetus for the renaissance the European nuclear industry, proved to be a financial disaster, fulfilling none of the industry promises, a new brief by the Energy Watch Group shows.

The EPR construction sites in Flamanville (France), Olkiluoto (Finland) and Hinkley Point C (UK) are exemplary of the failed nuclear industry with no single EPR having been completed to date. All existing EPR projects are characterized by years of commissioning delays, grave technical and security problems and exploding construction costs of up to tens of billions Euros.

The further construction of these reactors was secured only by means of multi-billion Euro state rescue packages. As a result, nuclear companies, especially the French AREVA and EDF, are increasingly under pressure and risk of bankruptcy as it was in the case of the US-Japanese company Westinghouse.

“The promises of “inherently safe” EPR reactors did not materialize and turned into a heavy burden to European taxpayers. It is time to immediately end all new nuclear energy projects and phase-out the existing ones, ” President of the Energy Watch Group Hans-Josef Fell and co-author of the brief said. “Renewable energy sources are the safest and financially better solution today. There is no longer any single reason to rely on or invest in nuclear energy.”

“The security threats of the aging European nuclear reactor fleet are constantly increasing. The new generation of EPR reactors even worsens security and financial risks for the population. Old and new flaws are closely interwoven, as the nuclear triangle Fessenheim-Flamanville-Hinkley Point clearly shows”, Eva Stegen, independent energy consultant, working for the electricity provider EWS Schönau, and co-author of the brief said.

The Energy Watch Group brief “The disaster of the European nuclear industry” documents the following disastrous developments in the EPR construction sites and nuclear as a whole in the European Union:

  • As of today, none of the EPR construction projects in the EU was completed. The EPR reactor in Hinkley Point C (the UK), which was due to provide first electricity by Christmas 2017, was postponed until 2027. The EPR project in Flamanville (France), which was due in 2012, was postponed until 2020. The Olkiluoto site in Finland is over 12 years behind its initial schedule.
  • All EPR projects are characterized by massive cost overruns. The original cost estimates of 3 billion Euros have now more than tripled to about 10.5 billion Euros at Flamanville and 8.5 billion Euros at Olkiluoto.
  • As of today, EDF has accumulated a debt of 61 billion Euros and AREVA 10 billion Euros in debt. The French state had to grant AREVA 4.5 billion Euros as state aid, EDF could only be rescued by a 3 billion Euros capital increase.
  • By February 2013 the costs of nuclear clean up of the Sellafield site had amounted to nearly £ 70 billion. Every year about £1.6 billion are added on top.
  • An unpublished British government study has shown that wind and solar power would generate electricity at half the cost of the planned Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant.
  • The driving force behind the UK government’s affinity to nuclear technology is the cross-subsidization of the military nuclear program. A study by University of Sussex has proved in detail, what is openly communicated by the military, but vehemently denied by the energy sector: the maintenance of the civilian nuclear program is a financial relieve for the defence budget
  • The EPRs are far from being “inherently safe” as the industry claimed. Currently the technical problems of the EPR projects seem unresolvable. The serious flaws in the bottom and lid of the EPR reactor pressure vessel in Flamanville cannot guarantee its safe operation. EU research on the fourth generation of nuclear power plants is an indirect admission that there are currently no inherently safe reactors, not even the EPR.
  • Terrorist and cyber attacks on nuclear facilities become increasingly likely. Hinkley Point C appears to be relying on purely digital control technology for its reactor protection, which is significantly susceptible to failure and terrorist digital attacks.
  • Renewable energy technologies are much cheaper, faster to install and can provide safe and secure power. A recent study by the Energy Watch Group and Lappeenranta University of Technology proved that renewable energy and storage systems could cover the worldwide electricity demand, even without a base load.

 

Find the complete brief here in englishdeutsch, français.

 

Press contact: Energy Watch Group, Tel: +49 30 609 898 810, presse©energywatchgroup.org

About the Energy Watch Group

The Energy Watch Group (EWG) is an independent, non-profit global network of scientists and parliamentarians. The EWG commissions research and independent studies and analyses on global energy developments.

February 15, 2018, Berlin – The Ludwig Bölkow Foundation and Energy Watch Group have joined the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Coalition for Action, an international network of leading players in renewable energy, which aims to promote a faster and wider uptake of renewable energy technologies.

The Coalition for Action has more than 70 members including private companies, industry associations, civil society, research institutes and international organizations. The coalition is a key international network to discuss industry trends, share knowledge and exchange best practices for the global energy transformation.

„We are very proud to join forces with the IRENA Coalition for Action and are looking forward to joint action to ensure a swift and just global transition to renewable energy. As an active member of the working group „Towards 100% Renewable Energy Group“ we look forward to exchange of our expertise and know-how,“ President of Energy Watch Group Hans-Josef Fell said.

The Coalition for Action operates through a merger of business and investor focused groups, which work on removing barriers for large scale investments, community energy and corporate sourcing of renewables. Additionally communication working groups are creating joint communication campaigns about relevant renewable energy topics. Among members of the Coalition for Action are REN21, Rocky Mountain Institute, World Future Council, World Resources Institute, WWF, CAN International, Greenpeace and World Wind Energy Association.

Press contact: Energy Watch Group, Tel: +49 30 609 898 810, presse©energywatchgroup.org

About Energy Watch Group

Energy Watch Group (EWG) is an independent, non-profit global network of scientists and parliamentarians. The EWG commissions research and independent studies and analyses on global energy developments.

A global transition to 100% renewable electricity is not a long-term vision, but already a tangible reality, a new groundbreaking study by the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and the Energy Watch Group (EWG) shows. The study was presented on November 8, 2017 during the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS) on the sidelines of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP23 in Bonn.

The results of the study are revealing: A global electricity system fully based on renewable energy is feasible at every hour throughout the year and is more cost effective than the existing system, which is largely based on fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050[1]. Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is €52/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to €70/MWh in 2015.

“A full decarbonization of the electricity system by 2050 is possible for lower system cost than today based on available technology. Energy transition is no longer a question of technical feasibility or economic viability, but of political will”, Christian Breyer, lead author of the study, LUT Professor of Solar Economy and Chairman of the EWG Scientific Board said.

A transition to 100% renewables would bring greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector down to zero and drastically reduce total losses in power generation. It would create 36 million jobs by 2050, 17 million more than today.

”There is no reason to invest one more Dollar in fossil or nuclear power production”, EWG President Hans-Josef Fell said. “Renewable energy provides cost-effective power supply. All plans for a further expansion of coal, nuclear, gas and oil have to be ceased. More investments need to be channeled in renewable energies and the necessary infrastructure for storage and grids. Everything else will lead to unnecessary costs and increasing global warming.”

The key findings of the study:

  • Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050. The world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion. The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWh by 2050.
  • Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is €52/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to €70/MWh in 2015.
  • Due to rapidly falling costs, solar PV and battery storage increasingly drive most of the electricity system, with solar PV reaching some 69%, wind energy 18%, hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity mix in 2050 globally.
  • Wind energy increases to 32% by 2030. Beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more competitive. The solar PV supply share increases from 37% in 2030 to about 69% in 2050.
  • Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV. The storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050, 95% of which is covered by batteries alone. Battery storage provides mainly diurnal storage, and renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage.
  • Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO2eqin 2015 to zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system
  • The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by 2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs in the 2015 electricity system.
  • The total losses in a 100% renewable electricity system are around 26% of the total electricity demand, compared to the current system in which about 58% of the primary energy input is lost.

The study “Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector” will have major implications for policy makers and politicians around the world, as it refutes a frequently used argument by critics that renewables cannot provide full energy supply on an hourly basis.

The first of its art modeling, developed by LUT, computes the cost-optimal mix of technologies based on locally available renewable energy sources for the world structured in 145 regions and calculates the most cost-effective energy transition pathway for electricity supply on an hourly resolution for an entire reference year. The global energy transition scenario is carried out in 5-year time periods from 2015 until 2050. The results are aggregated into nine major regions of the world: Europe, Eurasia, MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa, SAARC, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, North America and South America.

The study “Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector” is co-funded by the German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and the Stiftung Mercator.

Click here for key findings and the executive summary

The full study is available here

A presentation summarising the global results and further links to regions and countries is available here

Press contact: Doreen Rietentiet, Energy Watch Group, Tel: +49 30 609 898 810, presse©energywatchgroup.org

About the Energy Watch Group

The Energy Watch Group (EWG) is an independent, non-profit global network of scientists and parliamentarians. The EWG commissions research and independent studies and analyses on global energy developments.

[1] The simulations of the global power sector in this study were made until 2050. Yet, with favorable political frameworks, the transition to 100% renewable energy can be realized earlier than 2050.

New Study on
100% Renewable Electricity Worldwide

Invitation to the launch of the study on November 8, 2017 in Bonn

As costs for renewable energy keep falling, and emerging markets lead in green energy investment, a global power system fully based on renewable energy is no longer a long-term vision.

On November 8, 2017, Lappeenranta University of Technology and the Energy Watch Group will present its new groundbreaking study*, which models a global transition to 100% renewable electricity.

The first of its kind modeling shows that existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage, can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050. With favorable political frameworks, this transition can be realized even earlier.

The study “Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector” will be launched at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase (GRESS) event on November 8, 2017 from 13:30 to 16:00 CET on the sidelines of the international climate change conference COP23 in Bonn.

Join our experts to discuss the results of the study and its implications for the global efforts to combat climate change and the global energy policy-making.

Please feel free to forward this invitation to anyone, who might be interested to attend the event.

Address: Federal Art and Exhibition Hall, Friedrich-Ebert-Allee 4, 53113 Bonn. It is a 10-minute walk from the Bula Zone of COP23.

*The study is co-funded by the German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and Stiftung Mercator.

October 17, 2017, Berlin –  The international network of scientists and parliamentarians Energy Watch Group has joined the Climate Action Network(CAN), the worldwide network of over 1100 non-governmental organizations, working on climate and energy issues.

On October 13, the Energy Watch Group was officially endorsed as a member by the General Assembly of the network’s regional chapter CAN Europe. The General Assembly took place on October 12-13 in Brussels.

“We are proud to become part of the Climate Action Network and are looking forward to exchange and joined action on tackling climate change and accelerating the energy transition to 100% renewables in Europe and worldwide”, President of Energy Watch Group Hans-Josef Fell said.

Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe is Europe’s largest coalition working on climate and energy issues. With over 130 member organisations in more than 30 European countries, representing over 44 million citizens, CAN Europe works to prevent dangerous climate change and promote sustainable climate and energy policy in Europe.

Press contact: Energy Watch Group, Tel: +49 30 609 898 810, presse©energywatchgroup.org

About Energy Watch Group

Energy Watch Group (EWG) is an independent, non-profit global network of scientists and parliamentarians. The EWG commissions research and independent studies and analyses on global energy developments.

Urgent rethink required as Germany’s Energy Transition stalls

Energy Watch Group says renewables must increase prominence after coming election

15.09.2017, Berlin – With the German election looming later this month, the country is seeing its ambitious Energy Transition – the Energiewende – stall. The former global leader is seeing the rate at which renewable energy is being installed dramatically fall.

Behind the decline, argues the Energy Watch Group in a new report, is a series of policy failures. The tender process, put in place to encourage renewable deployment and replace Germany’s feed-in tariff, has been a complete failure, says the Energy Watch Group. Dramatic declines in large scale solar PV, biomass, hydropower, and geothermal have taken place since tenders were introduced, with wind power set to follow suit in 2019.

Most worryingly, at the rate at which renewables are being installed in Germany at present, they will be insufficient to replace nuclear closures and will derail the country’s decarbonization program.

“Germany moved from frontrunner to laggard, exactly at the time when renewables are the cheapest option, and Germany must rethink its policy structures and move away from tenders towards a modern feed-in tariff,” says Hans-Josef Fell, former German parliamentarian and Energy Watch Group President.

Fell observes that in the current election campaign, energy and Germany’s Energy Transition project has been sidelined, and must urgently return to the center.

The Energy Watch Group report sets out not only the extent of the policy failures regarding renewables, but also points to the danger to the German economy if it and the Energy Transition continues to stall.

“Germany is becoming disconnected from one of the most dynamic and disruptive sectors within the global economy, with China, India, and the U.S. standing by to take the lead,” said Dieter Janecek, German Parliamentarian, and member of the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen party’s economic and energy committee. “These countries are embracing this new economy, solar, wind, e-mobility, storage at the moment Germany is turning its back. In some years Germany will import the technologies from abroad, and no-one will buy the German technology and products.”

The Energy Watch Group advises that the new majority in the German parliament after the forthcoming election should pursue a very different policy agenda with regards to renewable energy deployment. This should involve:

  • Abandoning the tender process for renewables;
  • Removing unnecessary bureaucracy hampering deployment;
  • Installing a ‘modern’ feed-in tariff for combined renewable investment;
  • Incorporating grid integration as a target for all investors in renewables

The Energy Watch Group report is available in English and in German.

Find this press release here as PDF.

New studies show that the fossil fuel dependent countries can switch to fully renewable electricity systems and achieve zero-carbon emissions till 2050.

March 17, 2017, Berlin/Lappeenranta – In India, Iran and Nigeria electricity supply fully based on renewable energy sources and storage is feasible until 2050 and is more cost-efficient than other existing energy supply options. This is the result of a series of studies by researchers of the Lappeenranta University of Technology, including authors from the respective countries.

The fully renewable electricity systems in India, Iran and Nigeria would be 60-70% cheaper than the so-called “low-carbon” energy options, including nuclear power or the fossil fuel energy combined with the CCS.

“All the three countries have abundant renewable energy sources and will be facing a rising energy demand in the coming years and decades. The transformation of the fossil fuel dependent economies can solve energy security issues and drive the economic growth”, Christian Breyer, Professor for Solar Economy at the Lappeenranta University of Technology and Co-chairman of the Energy Watch Group scientific board said.

The new studies have modeled on a full hourly resolution the energy sectors electricity, desalination and industrial gas in India, Iran and Nigeria, fully based on renewable energy and storage. According to the studies, solar PV and battery storage will play a dominant role in the electricity mix, given their falling costs and given the fact that all three countries belong to the global Sun Belt. Meanwhile, the industrial gas demand can be covered entirely by a mix of biomethane and power-to-gas processes.

“The studies show that investments in new coal and nuclear power plants are no longer necessary and will lead to stranded investments. Climate protection and the avoidance of radioactive hazards are feasible and enable cost-effective energy security,” President of the Energy Watch Group Hans-Josef Fell said.

In India, solar PV and storage will form the backbone of a fully renewable electricity system. In times of low radiation and the monsoon season, wind and hydropower will help to sustain the energy supply, but also solar electricity harvested in other Indian regions not affected by the monsoon and transmitted by the power grid. In Iran, wind energy will be dominant until 2030 with solar PV taking over thereafter. In Nigeria, the study shows a phase out of fossil gas can take place already by 2040, resulting in a solar PV and battery storage dominated electricity system.

 

Share of different energy sources used for power generation in total electricity production in Iran

According to the studies, the costs for one MWh will vary between €37-42 in India, €32-44 in Iran and €35-38 in Nigeria in the year 2050. The overall costs covering production, storage and curtailment will be cheaper than conventional energy sources. For instance, new nuclear power costs some €110 per MWh and the fossil fuel energy plus CCS option some €120 per MWh. The study on Iran shows that if energy transition takes place slower than its potential is, it would cause higher cost for the energy system in the double digit billion € order.

“It is now a matter of favourable policies and financial schemes supporting investments in renewable energy to further accelerate the already impressive exponential growth of renewables and to turn these study results into reality”, Breyer said. “And if India, Iran and Nigeria switch to 100% renewable energy then other countries in their respective regions will most likely follow them as role models”.

 

India: paper and presentation
Iran: paper and presentation
Nigeria: paper and presentation

By Hans-Josef Fell

January 2017

Challenges

  1. Ukraine was among the countries that ratified the Paris Climate Agreement early on, ahead of the EU and Germany. This move signalled a political will to contribute to global efforts to halt climate change and to significantly reduce the currently high shares of gas, coal and oil in the energy mix of the country. The country needs to accelerate the currently slow deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency measures. Energy security of the entire Europe is under question and can be destabilized, as it was the case in 2006 and 2009, as the gas-price disputes between Russia and Ukraine disrupted deliveries to Europe.
  1. One of the biggest geopolitical challenges of Ukraine is its high dependency on energy supplies, especially natural gas and oil, from Russia. This dependency significantly decreased in the last two years. In 2015, gas imports from the EU have doubled, reaching 10.3 bcm, and have for the first time exceeded imports from Russia. The latter decreased dramatically from 14.5 bcm in 2014 to 6.1 bcm last year. Dependency on coal, coming especially from the war-torn eastern regions of the country, is another major problem. Coal provides 40% of primary energy supply and 30% of electricity production. This further undermines energy security in the country.
  1. Ukraine is heavily dependent on nuclear power generation, accounting for more than 50% of the country’s electricity production and 20% of primary energy supply. Yet, the existing 15 reactors are out-dated and a major safety hazard, as proved by Chernobyl. Ukraine receives most of its nuclear services and nuclear fuel from Russia.

Combined with the economic weakness, high debts, driven by the import costs of the energy raw materials and high unemployment rate leads to lack of political independence.

Chances and solutions

Diversification within the fossil and nuclear energy sector cannot serve as a solution. A new gas pipeline the EU has built in Ukraine serves only as a short-term solution since the EU is still heavily dependent on the Russian natural gas supplies. At the same time as own production of natural gas in the EU, especially in the UK, the Netherlands, Germany goes down, the EU will have problems with its own energy security.

Therefore, the only long-lasting and economically and environmentally reasonable solution is rapid deployment of energy efficiency measures and a transition to domestic renewable energy sources. Ukraine has a high potential across all renewable energy sources: solar, wind, water, biomass due to large rural areas and geothermal energy. All these sources need to be deployed, as they will create many jobs, especially in the rural economy.

  1. A decisive factor will be a modern efficient and 100% renewables based energy system in Ukraine. Fluctuations of renewable energy can be balanced by means of different storage methods, incl. power-to-gas, power-to-heat, battery, pumping stations, etc. and the integration into demand-oriented flexibility of hydropower, bioenergy, hydropower and geothermal energy across all energy dependent sectors: electricity, heating, cooling, transport and industry. Oil and gas in the heating and transport sector should be replaced by electrification. Sustainable biofuel will play a significant role in the transport sector (construction machinery and agriculture). Fertile and degraded land areas in Ukraine offer great chances for biofuel production and at the same time will help to protect the climate through carbon sinks.

The recent study of the Lappeenranta University of Technology “Transition towards a 100% Renewable Energy System by 2050 for Ukraine” that such transition is not only possible but also cost-effective.

  1. One of the most important drivers hereto is a favourable political framework, including laws providing financial security to investors in renewable energy and energy efficiency both domestically and abroad. Such laws can also enable a wide range of actors to invest, especially private people, small and medium enterprises, farmers, public utilities and financial institutions. A feed-in-tariff and a privileged grid access can guarantee such long-term investment security. A feed-in-tariff law should be based on the German model of the year 2000 and non-tendering models, as tenders ultimately benefit only large business investors. Also key is a change in the energy industry framework legislation, stimulation of competition through unbundling as well as reduction of monopolies and oligopolies and combating corruption.
  1. Know-how transfer, education and training in the energy sector through offensive programs at universities and vocational training schools as well as a state-financed campaign on raising public awareness about renewable energy and energy efficiency through decentralized energy agencies and energy consultants will be key. Also important is establishment of partnerships of municipalities in Ukraine with many best-practice municipalities in Europe and Germany.

Hans-Josef Fell was member of the German parliament from 1998 to 2013 in the Alliance 90/the Greens group. He is the co-author of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act 2000, and President of the Energy Watch Group.

November 30, 2016, Berlin – The International Energy Agency’s call for new investments in fossil fuels, in particular oil and gas, in its latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) undermines the agency’s seemingly positive messages related to climate protection and the development of renewable energy, an analysis by the Energy Watch Group shows.

The World Energy Outlook 2016, which was presented today in Berlin, calls for increased investment in oil and gas due to oil discoveries at lowest level in more than 60 years and low oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) thereby disregards that the current low investment is in fact caused by the lack of new discoveries and the depletion of existing reserves. Moreover, higher oil prices will not be able to compensate for the lack of funding as cost reductions in the renewable energy sector increasingly challenge the competitiveness of oil and gas.

„Even if oil prices were to rise again, future oil production will not stay at today’s level, simply because of the limited availability. By calling for increased investments in oil, the IEA undermines climate protection efforts and threatens the global energy security. Only a rapid development of renewable energies can close the emerging energy supply gap. Oil investments are not able to do so”, says President of the Energy Watch Group and former member of the German Parliament Hans-Josef Fell.

“Even in its most optimistic scenario, the IEA projects the future level of development of renewable energies to be far below today´s rates. In this way, the IEA misleads the public about the real potential of solar and wind energy as well as e-mobility”, adds Fell.

The analysis by the Energy Watch Group shows: even though the IEA operates with positive messages with regard to renewable energy, a closer look at the numbers reveals that the WEO2016 in fact assumes a lower pace of renewable energy development than already achieved in the last eight years. Furthermore, the IEA seems to ignore the new global dynamic as a result of the Paris Agreement.

Even the report´s most ambitious scenario, the 450 Scenario, assumes that the net added capacity of new solar PV and wind power plants will peak in 2030. The IEA does not provide reasons, why solar and wind plants should face a net decrease of new installations despite their continuously falling prices and a growing global energy demand.

“A decrease in net added capacities stands in stark contrast to projections by leading international market observers. Assuming a slow market penetration of wind power and solar PV also contradicts the dynamic of the global energy transition in the last 10 years,” says Christian Breyer, Professor of Solar Economy at the Lappeenranta University of Technology in Finland and Chairman of the Scientific Board at Energy Watch Group.

The report´s “New Policies Scenario” (NPS) projects that the costs for solar photovoltaic power plants in India will be 800 USD/kWp in 2040. This ignores the fact that the Government of India estimates the current costs for solar PV-plants at 710 USD (670€)/kWp. In addition, the IEA severely underestimates the potential of the e-mobility sector. This is illustrated by the IEA’s assumption that 80% of transport will still be dependent on fossil oil in 2040.

Further examples of the controversial IEA projections in the World Energy Outlook 2016:

  • The IEA assumes that Europe´s gas imports from Russia in 2040 will stay on today´s level. The IEA also projects that Russia will increase its gas production by 20% until 2040. This assumption neglects the fact that gas production in Russia, especially by the major producer Gazprom, is sharply decreasing. In 2015, Gazprom recorded a production of 419 billion m3, the same lowest level as in 1985.
  • The NPS Scenario suggests a net increase in nuclear capacity of 65 GW, the 450 Scenario even approx. 160 GW. The projected construction of 131 new reactors assumed for 2025 suggests that in the coming 8 to 9 years more than twice the 60 reactors currently under construction will be built. This assumption contradicts the experiences of the recent decades.
  • The IEA keeps assuming an increase in coal consumption up until 2040 in all scenarios except for the 450 Scenario, which projects a coal consumption drop by 50% in comparison to today’s levels. Yet, the 10% drop in coal production in China in 2016 as well as the loss of market value by many western coal companies give reason to assume a significantly higher reduction of coal consumption.

“It is long overdue that the IEA changes the status of the 450 Scenario into the NPS Scenario, especially in light of the current Chinese coal policies and the internationally binding Paris Agreement. In addition, the IEA is still blind on both eyes: it underestimates renewable energy on the one hand and overestimates nuclear energy on the other hand”, says Werner Zittel, Senior Energy Expert at the Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik and Chairman of the Scientific Board at Energy Watch Group.

In 2015, a series of studies by the Energy Watch Group and the Lappeenranta University of Technology showed that the IEA continuously published misleading projections on solar and wind energy in its World Energy Outlook.

Zero-carbon economy needed to meet Paris Agreement

November 4, 2016, Berlin – Germany’s current climate targets are too weak and fall short of meeting the Paris Climate Agreement. Meanwhile, the German government is on track to missing even these weak climate targets, a new study by the Energy Watch Group and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) Germany shows.

The Paris Agreement is entering into force today. Yet, the former climate leader Germany is most likely to take off to the world climate conference COP22 in Marrakesh without a Climate Action Plan in place – and is turning into a climate sinner.

“The federal government needs to completely rewrite its Energy Concept and climate targets. The greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels is inadequate to meet the Paris targets”, Hans-Josef Fell, co-author of the study, President of the Energy Watch Group, and Member of the German Parliament 1998-2013 says.

“Current climate protection measures do not bring about any significant emissions reduction. Global temperature is increasing at unprecedented speed. Given the consequences we already observe today, any further increase of global temperatures – 1.5°C or less – should be unacceptable. The target should be a cooling to preindustrial levels”, Fell adds.

The new study ‘German Climate Policy – From Leader to Laggard’ proves that the emissions reduction pathway in Germany has been surpassed every year since 2010. Especially the transport, electricity and agricultural sectors have contributed to this transgression. According to the government projections, in its most ambitious scenario, the transport sector for example will exceed the set 2035 targets by a striking 91%.

“The emissions reduction pathway from 2010 was already exceeded years ago. With the new more ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement in place, additional and stronger measures are now needed. The aim should be a zero-carbon economy by 2030”, Jörn Schwarz, author of the study and chairman of ASPO Germany says.

A global zero-carbon economy should go hand in hand with the creation of effective carbon sinks and requires a range of measures on the policy and technical level. The study shows that 100% renewable energy as well as a functioning circular economy is essential. The study authors recommend including climate protection into the constitution; creating incentives for private investments into climate change protection; and promoting research and education in this field.

“This study clearly shows that the current German energy policy removes any possibility to meet the Paris climate targets. Compared to the ambitious measures of other countries, Germany is increasingly lagging behind on its climate protection action. The federal government is jeopardizing the livelihoods of current and future generations, and the competitive advantage of the country“, Dr. Volker Quaschning, Professor for regenerative energy systems at HTW Berlin, and peer reviewer of the study says.

The study is currently only available in German. You can find it here.